bjp-l-digest Wednesday, January 21 1998 Volume 02 : Number 033
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News and Analysis List Digest
Index:
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BJP declares war on Sonia
Survey predicts hung parliament
Seat adjustment/alliances: Final picture today
Sonia failed to snatch the agenda: BJP
Advantage BJP, twice: Survey
Advani draws huge crowds in Bihar
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Date: January 20, 1998
Source: The Economic Times
Howitzza! BJP declares war, trains Bofors on Rajiv's widow
Our Political Bureau
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NEW DELHI 19 JANUARY
THE BJP today attempted to raise political temperature over
the Bofors issue by posing six questions to the Congress(I)
on the deal and said that the widow of the former prime
minister Rajiv Gandhi - Ms Sonia Gandhi - would have to do
a lot of explaining on her connections with the Italian
middleman, Mr Ottavio Quattrochi.
The BJP general secretary, Mr M Venkaiah Naidu, said his
party have already picked up the gauntlet thrown by Ms
Sonia Gandhi.
``My party is prepared to bring out the truth about the
deal.
Asserting that Ms Sonia Gandhi's upping of the ante over
the Bofors deal would boomerang on the Congress(I), Mr
Naidu alleged that the truth regarding the multi-crore pay
off had been suppressed by the Congress(I) and the
Congress(I)-supported United Front government at the
Centre.
Mr Naidu charged the Congress(I) with changing lawyers
arguing the case and easing out CBI director Joginder Singh
after the agency released the information regarding the
infamous businessman Ottavio Quattrochi, who is alleged to
be close to the Rajiv Gandhi family.
Posing six questions, the party said, ``if Ms Gandhi and
the party she is campaigning for are really interested in
getting at the truth about Bofors, let them come out with
categorical answers to these questions.''
Mr Naidu said it was ``not only surprising but demeaning''
from the point of view of India's national pride, that no
less a person than the prime minister should have confessed
that those suspected behind Bofors scandal have long arms.
``This is a tacit and helpless admission that arm of the
present Indian government is shorter than that of some
private individuals,'' he said.
The BJP's six questions are:
Is it not a fact that a British front company, AE Services,
was involved in the deal-making in November 1985, six
months after Rajiv Gandhi's government announcement that
there would be no middlemen?
Is it not a fact that AE Services clinched the Bofors deal
days before its contract was to expire?
Is it not a fact that monies received by AE Services found
their way to Quattrochi's account?
Is it not a fact that Quattrochi was the man behind AE
Services?
Is it not a fact that Swedish and Swiss documents have
established the `Q' factor in the Bofors payoff scandal and
that these papers are available with the Government of
India?
Is it not a fact that Quattrochi and his wife, Maria, were
extremely close to the Rajiv Gandhi household?
The BJP general secretary, who charged the Congress(I) with
pulling down governments whenever it was about to make
papers on Bofors deal public, said that the new
``campaigner'' for the ``grand old'' party should also help
the Congress(I) to formulate its repose to his party's
questions.
The BJP offence is sure to make things trickier for the
Congress(I) which is already at the receiving end for Ms
Gandhi's observations on the Babri demolition.
The Left parties, Samajawadi Party and the Janata Dal,
which pointed its accusing fingers at the Congress(I) for
the tearing down of the disputed structure, had yesterday
threatened to spill the beans.
It may be recalled that these parties have pointed out that
Rajiv Gandhi, who allowed reopening of the structure had
later given permission to conduct ``shilanyas''.
He had also kicked off his election campaign for the 1989
polls from Ayodhya.
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Date: January 19, 1998
Source: The Hindu
Survey predicts hung Parliament
Date: 19-01-1998 :: Pg: 15 :: Col: d
NEW DELHI, Jan. 18.
The country is all set for another hung Parliament, with
the BJP and the Congress(I) increasing their 1996
tallies at the expense of the United Front in the Lok
Sabha polls. According to a survey commissioned by the
Outlook magazine, the BJP and its allies are likely to
return 238 MPs to the 12th Lok Sabha, the Congress(I)
and allies 149 and the United Front (including th Left
Front) just 123.
But given the positive response among respondents to
Mrs. Sonia Gandhi's decision to campaign for the
Congress(I), the party's tally is expected to go beyond
150 while the UF's could decline further from 123.
The poll was conducted by A. C. Nielsen, a market
research agency, after Mrs. Gandhi announced her
decision to campaign. Fourty-four per cent of the
respondents felt Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee would make the
most capable Prime Minister, while Mrs. Gandhi was
catching up with an approval of 25 per cent. In
contrast, Mr. I. K. Gujral received 5 per cent of the
votes; Mr. Jyoti Basu 4 per cent; Mr. L. K. Advani, Mr.
Deve Gowda, Mr. Kanshi Ram and Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav 3
per cent; and Mr. Sitaram Kesri 2 per cent.
The BJP was deemed the most capable of giving the
country a stable government for five years (39 per
cent), with the Congress(I) 31 per cent and the UF at 10
per cent. Asked whether the BJP was a communal party, 45
per cent disagreed and 38 per cent thought it was.
Forty-four per cent thought Mr. Vajpayee could keep
communal forces within the BJP in check.
Sixty-four per cent of the respondents believed Mrs.
Gandhi's campaigning would fetch the Congress(I) more
votes. Nearly a third (31 per cent) said her canvassing
would make a difference as to which party they would
vote for. Significantly, a majority of them said they
would vote for the Congress(I). Her Italian birth was a
non-issue with the respondents with 62 per cent saying
it was a non-issue. In fact, 54 per cent of the
respondents thought the Congress(I) should project Mrs.
Gandhi as Prime Minister. There was more trouble for the
Congress(I) President, Mr. Sitaram Kesri - 53 per cent
felt he should resign as party President.
Interestingly, a stable government was voted only the
fourth most pressing issue facing the country after
price rise, justice for the poor and law and order.
Forty-one per cent said the BJP was the most competent
to solve these problems, while 28 per cent answered the
Congress(I).
A total of 7,578 respondents were interviewed in 41
parliamentary constituencies spread across 10 States
(Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Karnataka, Maharashtra,
Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh and
West Bengal). Fieldwork was carried out between January
4 and January 10 this year.
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Date: Jan. 20, 1998
Source: The Hindu
Final picture likely today
NEW DELHI, Jan. 19.
The BJP has finalised its seat-sharing arrangement with
the AIADMK - it will be contesting five seats in all
from Tamil Nadu - and the party expects its State units
in Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Orissa, to report to
the Central Election Committee meeting tomorrow about
the possibilities of arriving at a final and
``realistic'' arrangement with its potential allies in
these States.
The party will be contesting Tiruchirapalli besides
Chennai South, Nilgiris, Nagercoil and Coimbatore
already announced earlier, although that was claimed to
be a ``mistake.'' A party leader said the BJP was
willing to offer Tiruchirapalli to Mr. P. R.
Kumaramangalam, but so far he had been unwilling to
contest from here. He wanted to contest from Salem, but
the AIADMK was unable to concede this to the BJP. Mr.
Kumaramangalam had also indicated that he was willing to
try his luck even from Coimbatore or Tiruchengode - but
the Coimbatore candidate has already been decided by the
BJP and Tiruchengode is not with the party. Although the
``final'' list of the party's Tamil Nadu candidates is
expected only tomorrow, no changes are expected to be
made in the four candidates already announced by it
earlier. It was only to clear the air with the AIADMK
that the party had said that changes could be made.
It is being admitted by senior party leaders that the
talks with Ms. Lakshmi Parvati's TDP (NTR) have broken
down and there is little hope of arriving at an
agreement. The gap between the expectations of the two
parties is too wide - the BJP would like to concede only
six Lok Sabha seats to the TDP(NTR), while she has
unilaterally announced her intention of contesting at
least 20 to 22 of the 42 seats.
In West Bengal, the party has not given up hope of
arriving at a resolution of the seat-sharing arrangement
with Ms. Mamata Banerjee's Trinamul Congress. The
``difference'' between what Ms. Banerjee is willing to
concede and what the BJP wants related only to two or
three seats. The sharing is expected to be around 14
seats for the BJP and 28 to be contested by Ms.
Banerjee's party, give or take one or two seats.
The recent anti-BJP rhetoric by Ms. Banerjee is being
dismissed by observers as an attempt by her to address
her own Muslim constituents. The BJP would have
preferred a joint campaign with Ms. Banerjee in Bengal
to derive full political advantage from the alliance,
but it was prepared to forego this in the interest of
keeping the alliance going.
And to help the party clinch a deal with the Biju Janata
Dal in Orissa, Mr. Pramod Mahajan, party general
secretary, has gone to Bhubaneshwar. All these State
units will be reporting the latest situation to the
Central Election Committee and some decision is then
expected to emerge. The BJP would like a finality about
the arrangements in the States so that it can complete
the process of selection of candidates over the next two
days when its Central Election Committee will be
meeting. After that the senior leaders of the Committee
will be leaving the capital for the next phase of the
campaign.
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Date: January 19, 1998
Source: The Pioneer
Sonia has failed to snatch agenda: BJP
Rajeev Deshpande/New Delhi
A week after Mrs Sonia Gandhi's plunge into the campaign
for the 12th Lok Sabha election, Bharatiya Janata Party
strategists feel that she has failed to snatch the poll
agenda.
As a result, they plan to concentrate on the stability
theme, which was the highlight of their campaign even
before Mrs Gandhi entered the scene.
The BJP, which continues to mount pressure on the Congress
over the Bofors issue, is being particularly careful not to
slip into a "reactive" frame, which would see it responding
to rather than setting the issues.
The hype over Ms Gandhi's public debut has also prompted
the party to adopt a more watchful policy.
On the Bofors front, BJP prime ministerial candidate Atal
Bihari Vajpayee on Sunday demanded that the United Front
Government release the Swiss documents related to the case.
Referring to Prime Minister IK Gujral's assertion that
certain individuals are "scuttling" the probe, he urged him
to name those people.
Mr Vajpayee also sought a "deportation or extradition"
status for Ottavio Quattrocchi, the controversial Italian
businessman close to the Gandhi family, who has been named
in the Bofors investigation.
BJP sources claimed that Ms Gandhi has provided them a
talking point by raking up the Bofors card. However, the
party is also well aware that several hurdles would be
faced while trying to obtain the second set of Bofors
papers and tracking down where the pay-offs were lodged.
"We would not like to wait for Sonia to unfurl the agenda
and set the tone of the campaign. To that extent, we don't
want to be seen as merely reacting to Congress
developments," a BJP insider pointed out.
This is despite the fact that Mrs Gandhi has completed only
the first phase of her campaign.
The BJP assessment appears to be based on the view that Ms
Gandhi has more or less run through the range of her
agenda.
She has brought forward the emotional appeal of a widow
campaigning for the causes espoused by her slain husband.
This factor has had an impact within the Congress, which
has over the decades developed an umblical dependence on
the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty.
Mrs Gandhi has also raised the Ayodhya issue and attacked
the BJP's "divisive" polity.
Here the BJP is drawing satisfaction from the sharp
reaction of some non-BJP parties, which have reminded the
Congress of its own role in fanning the Ayodhya
controversy.
"Naturally, the Congress and Mrs Gandhi will be asked what
role Rajiv played in removing the locks from the Ayodhya
structure and reminded of his call for a Ram Rajya at
Faizabad," a BJP leader explained.
The BJP leadership is expected to take up the theme of
governance by giving substance to the stability slogan.
The party will specify the issues linked to political and
government reforms, to counter the impression that its lack
of experience at the Centre would be a handicap if it forms
the Government.
BJP analysts feel that Mrs Gandhi would not be able to cut
much ice with voters when she begins her north India tour.
Here, the party would closely scrutinise any effect she
might have on marginal seats if efforts for an
understanding between the Congress and Union Defence
Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party succeed.
While Mr Vajpayee expounds the theme of governance, the
party's think-tank is searching for the broader issues
which would have to be addressed in its manifesto. The
effort in this regard is to frame a few catchy promises.
The party would certainly like to clear up the clouds over
its approach to economic reforms.
The strategy would probably be to send foreign investors a
strong signal that the reforms would be carried forward,
while simultaneously making the predictable Swadeshi
overtures.
The larger issue that needs more discussion is whether
there should be a bold move to promise institutional
reforms. In the past, such moves have been seen as too
radical.
There is, however, a section in the party which feels that
the BJP should not fall back on a "play safe" option, which
would leave the legacy of a bloated public sector and
bureaucratic planning untouched.
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Date: January 20, 1998
Source: Economic Times
Advantage BJP, deuce, says CMS opinion poll
Our Political Bureau
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NEW DELHI 19 JANUARY
THERE will be a nine per cent electoral swing in favour of
the BJP, the Centre for Media Studies survey on the
forthcoming poll has predicted. However, the CMS predicts
that despite the swing in its favour, the BJP and its
allies are unlikely to get an absolute majority. While the
poll has pegged the tally of BJP and its allies in the
range of 235-245, it has concluded that the Congress(I)
along with its friends, is likely to rock at 140-150 seats.
The worst shock, however, has been reserved by the poll for
the United Front, which is expected to lose a significant
number of seats, that is, around 70 to 80. Its tally is not
expected to exceed 112 seats.
Along with its confirmed allies including the AIADMK, Biju
Janata Dal, Samata Party, Haryana Vikas Party, Akali Dal
and the Lok Shakti, the survey conducted has presaged that
the BJP would be in a position to garner around 235 to 245
seats in all countrywide, which is well above the 170 tally
predicted by other surveys earlier but more in keeping with
the recent opinion polls sponsored by major national news
weeklies. The CMS poll was conducted between January 9-11
among 8,400 voters spread across 60 Lok Sabha
constituencies in 14 states. ``There is likely to be a
swing of 9.3 per cent in favour of the BJP and its allies
which may end up with 235 to 245 seats,'' the survey has
held. The Congress(I) and its allies - in this case, the
RJD, RJP and JMM have been counted as such, are expected on
the basis of the poll to experience a positive swing of 1.5
per cent, translating into its around 150 tally.
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Date: January 19, 1998
Source: Economic Times
If crowds indicate anything, Laloo better watchout
PATNA 18 JANUARY
BJP president L K Advani has served a strong notice to
Bihar's strongman, Laloo Prasad Yadav, by addressing
largely attended meetings in the latter's bastion of north
Bihar.
Mr Advani, kicking off the party's poll campaign on
Thursday last, drew good crowds at Siwan, Madhubani and
Darbhanga-all in the plains lying north of the Ganges which
have been the `powerhouse' for the RJD. At Siwan it was a
capacity crowd which braved a hostile weather to wait for
full four hours to listen to Mr Advani and the response
that he got at both Darbhanga and Madhubani was equally
encouraging, boosting the hopes of the BJP that it will
spring surprises on Mr Yadav.
In the last Lok Sabha, all these seats along with a
majority in north Bihar had been bagged by the Janata Dal
and its allies defying the trend that had seen the
BJP-Samata alliance putting up a good show elsewhere in
states. For the BJP to dent the RJD's bastion of north
Bihar has become an imperative in view of changed equations
in South Bihar. The party which won 12 of the 14 seats in
south Bihar is having to contend with a strong challenge
this time in the form of the moves of Mr Yadav to stitch
together an alliance of his RJD with the Congress(I) and
the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha(Soren). The proposed anti-BJP
block is yet to be firmed up. But its combined might holds
the potential of upsetting the BJP's apple-cart in the
southern part of the crucial state.
The BJP is aware of the risk and that explains why Mr
Advani in the first phase of his electioneering in Bihar
chose to focus more on the southern part of the politically
crucial state. However, since that can only minimise the
damage and not eliminate it altogether, the party is
banking on an improved performance in the north Bihar to
compensate the losses that Mr Yadav is trying to inflict
upon it. It is here that the success of Mr Advani's trip to
the north Bihar acquires significance.
The impressive gatherings that turned out to listen to him
was enough to confirm the party's calculation that the
upper castes, determined to see the back of Mr Yadav, are
rallying behind it. In the last election, votes of the
upper castes had got split between it and the Congress(I).
The BJP, of course, got the lion's share, but even the
small fraction that went to the Congress(I) was enough to
tip the scales in favour of the Janata Dal and its allies
in many a constituencies. The continuing decline of the
Congress(I) and its decision to bail out Mr Yadav has
considerably damaged whatever was still left of its
once-strong base. The party is in such a bad shape that
even the belated rescue effort of Ms Sonia Gandhi may not
be of much help at least in Bihar.
Significantly, the BJP chief in his address decided to
hammer this point repeatedly as if to impress upon the
upper caste voters that their objective of ousting Mr Yadav
was unlikely to be achieved if they were to divide their
votes this time as well. Mr Advani recalled the imposition
of the Emergency and the controversy over the Bofors
payoffs. And judging by the way his audience lapped up his
reference to the Congress(I) president, Sitaram Kesri's
`role' in the diminution of that party, the script was
serving the purpose. Even his dismissing the Sonia factor
as of no consequence appeared to have been designed to
quell any second thoughts in the voters' mind about the
irrelevance of the Congress(I) for the anti-Laloo forces.
Mr Advani's efforts are going to be supplemented by Mr Atal
Behari Vajpayee who has plans to devote considerable
attention to the state which account for 54 Lok Sabha
seats-second only to Uttar Pradesh's 85. But the appeal of
the `future' Prime Minister is not the only factor that
they are looking forward to clinch the issue they could not
the last time in Bihar. The Sangh Parivar hopes to get
equally strong support from the divisions in the `secular'
parivar. The split in the Janata Dal with the CPI leaving
the side of Mr Yadav and the Samajwadi Party trying to
queer the RJD's pitch, the BJP camp is obviously all glee,
confident that the division of the votes of its adversaries
would work to its advantage. And considering that the
Janata Dal is more interested in humiliating Mr Yadav and
his RJD rather than defeating the BJP, the calculations of
the latter do not seem to be off the mark.
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End of bjp-l-digest V2 #33
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