An alarming future scenario of Assam, portrayed in a
41-page report of Governor S K Sinha, indicates that
unchecked influx of Bangladeshi infiltrators may lead to
severing of the entire land mass of the North East from
rest of the country.
The report submitted to President K R Narayanan recently
also points out that the "perceptible changes" in the
State's demography might spur "the long cherished design of
greater Bangladesh" by fundamentalists.
The report which makes startling revelation about
infiltration of Bangladeshis into Indian territory also
deals with the likely political and strategic fallout of
the situation.
Mr Sinha, a retired Lt General of the Indian Army,
apprehended that if the influx was not checked "they may
swamp the Assamese people and may severe the North East
land mass from the rest of India."
Mr Sinha, who was given his new assignment by the Atal
Bihari Vajpayee Government, substantiated his statement by
handing out statistical figures. "Bangladesh census records
indicate a reduction of 39 lakh Hindus between 1971 and
1981 and another 36 lakhs between 1981 and 1989. These 75
lakh Hindus have obviously come into India. Perhaps most of
them have come into States other than Assam."
Similarly, with regard to influx of Muslims from across the
border, the report says: "In 1970, the population of East
Pakistan was 7.5 crores but in 1974 it had come down to
7.14. On the basis of 3.1 per cent annual population growth
rate of that period, the population in 1974 should have
been 7.7 crore. The shortfall of 6 million people can be
explained only by large scale migration."
Substantiating the theory of "demographic change" of the
State, the report points out that the "muslim population in
Assam has risen from 24.68 per cent in 1951 to 28.42 per
cent in 1991. As per the 1991 census, four districts
(Dhubri, Goalpara, Barpeta and Hailakandi) have become
Muslim majority areas. Two more districts (Nowgaon and
Karimganj) should have become so by 1998 and one district
(Morgaon) is fast approaching this position."
The Governor has also suggested that the Illegal Migration
Determination Tribunal (IMDT) Act be repealed and in its
stead an effective legislation enacted to curb the flow of
illegal migrants.
In what appears to be "cautioning note", the report says,
"the dangerous consequences of large scale illegal
migration from Bangladesh, for both people of Assam and
more for the nation, need to be emphatically stressed. No
misconceived and mistaken notions of secularism should be
allowed to come in the way of doing so."
The report also outlines Mr Sinha's contention of
perceptible changes in the region and says, "this silent
invidious demographic invasion of Assam may result in the
loss of the geostrategically vital districts of lower
Assam."
Fearing that demographic changes in the State might
strengthen fundamentalist forces, the report adds, "the
rapid growth of international Islamic fundamentalism may
provide the driving force of this demand. In this context,
it is pertinent (to note) that Bangladesh has long
discarded secularism and has chosen to become an Islamic
state."
Commenting on political parties' lackadaisical approach to
the issue, Mr Sinha in his report says "political parties
have been underplaying the grave importance of this problem
and have been viewing it as something affecting only the
Assamese people. Thus an issue of great concern for
national security has been made into a partisan affair and
a matter of vote-bank."
The Governor has also given 13 recommendations in order to
check the influx of Bangladeshi Muslims and suggested that
a national register for citizens and non-citizens be
prepared, updated and computerised.
While recommending fencing of the border and vigilant
patrolling, the report also urged the Indian Government to
assist in the process of economic development in
Bangladesh. "Socio-economic programmes designed to improve
the lot of women should be given priority due to its
multiple beneficiary spin offs -- improving the family's
income, women's education aimed at curbing population
growth."