The BJP has undoubtedly consolidated its position with
Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee negotiating a fairly
peaceful week and Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha accepting
favourable comments on a job well done. Meanwhile, the
Congress party has baffled everyone with its position on
Bihar. It has allowed RJD chief Laloo Prasad Yadav to ride
on Ms Sonia Gandhi's shoulder and shoot fodder-tipped
arrows at everyone in sight. The Left too has emerged as Mr
Laloo Yadav's unqualified allies. In their fight to save
the nation from the BJP "anything and everything" seems to
be justified. In such a scenario, some are bound to gain
and some lose.
Even as the BJP-led Government gets a fresh lease of life,
prospects of the Congress recording a "no effort" victory
has receded. Much will now depend on the Assembly elections
in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and, to some extent, Goa. The
BJP and its allies clearly have time to consolidate while
the Congress party and its Italy-born president may well be
left to wonder what went wrong with their calculations. The
fact that general elections have been postponed for the
moment could upset those in the Congress who thought the
party was well-poised for instant power. As for the BJP and
its allies, they have received a fright and may well let
the Congress take the spotlight as Mr Laloo Yadav resumes
his rule in Bihar and the Congress concentrates on
organisation elections which divide rather than
consolidate.
The Congress president is evidently waiting for the BJP
euphoria over the bus ride to Pakistan to peter out and,
undoubtedly, her home or kitchen lobby will lead her to
believe this. The point which the Congress think-tank has
to consider is why Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee has recovered
his credibility in such a short time and with such minimal
effort? The reason may well be that public opinion is in
favour of Mr Vajpayee as compared to other leaders at the
moment. Certainly, there is general appreciation for the
fact that the Prime Minister is acting firmly and with a
great deal of maturity.
To me, the gain of the BJP and its allies does not come as
surprise as they have all the talent to succeed. Mr
Yashwant Sinha justly earns credit but only time will prove
whether the sacking of Mr Mohan Guruswamy for reasons
unknown delivers a telling blow on the prevalent business
lobby. Mr Jaswant Singh and Mr Pramod Mahajan earn
political points while Defence Minister George Fernandes,
besides running his Ministry, handles political trouble
spots. Mr Vajpayee too has his kitchen lobby which is the
PMO and clearly in a system designed for excesses the PMO
has acted with restraint. For this, credit must go to the
Prime Minister's principal secretary and his team.
At the moment, the most important point for the BJP is team
work with the crucial negative factor of dual power bases
in the party no longer existing; Mr LK Advani has been
losing ground and Mr Vajpayee has emerged as the supreme
boss. In politics, public perceptions, and not facts, are
relevant. In public perception, Mr Advani represents
hardline views and Mr Vajpayee's bus ride to Pakistan has
proved that the country is not looking for hardliners.
There cannot be two captains on a ship. I think the RSS too
must have realised this as they came perilously close to
losing power after sitting on the side-lines for 50 years.
Public opinion on Mr Advani may be cruel and unfair but it
must be largely attributed to his close team of advisors
looking for political gains behind a facade of "iron"
qualities attributed to him. The truth is Mr Advani has a
great deal of competence and maturity and hopefully he will
form an effective part of the team. The next few months are
critical for the BJP as they have to sustain business
confidence, conduct fruitful negotiations with the US, keep
the Indo-Pakistani dialogue on a steady path. They also
have a major challenge coming in Andhra Pradesh where the
TDP and the Congress are major contestants and in Karnataka
where the ailing Janata Dal will make it a stiff contest
between the BJP-Lok Shakti and and the Congress.
Even though the Congress has lost all chances of instant
glory it must be the favourite to win in Andhra Pradesh
where Mr Chandrababu Naidu faces the incumbency factor as
also the fact that in the last Lok Sabha elections the
Congress routed the TDP. The Karnataka situation is fluid
as the Janata Dal Government shatters its own existence. Mr
HD Deve Gowda may well make place for new leaders and new
alignments in a State brimming with political talent. The
Congress obviously prefers more youthful leaders-Mr Raj
Shekhar Reddy is preferred to Mr Vijay Bhasker Reddy while
in Karnataka Mr SM Krishna assumes charge and could well be
the new face of the party. The Karnataka electoral battle
like Andhra will not be easy for either side and for both
the BJP and the Congress the crucial factor could be the
way they negotiate the next few months.
The Congress, particularly the party's president, Ms
Gandhi, will have a difficult time and the home or kitchen
cabinet theory with select media favourites will draw a
distinction between the moral designs of Ms Gandhi against
the political objectives of other leaders. The 'Mrs'
syndrome will be apparent as Ms Gandhi will be placed on a
pedestal higher than the party. History, of course, has
shown that a similar exercise with Rajiv Gandhi was a
disaster. The Punjab and Assam accords (both still
incomplete) were determined to place Rajiv Gandhi's
interests above those of the party. This does not work as
is evident in the Bihar decision. The solution for the
Congress party till election time lies in involving
everyone in organisational elections and then, like the 33
per cent reservation for women issue, let things slide. The
Congress honeymoon is clearly over and as the BJP
stabilises the Congress will have to work hard to prove
itself. Another factor worth consideration is that Delhi
and Rajasthan will also have to negotiate the summer months
and internal dissent. The Rajasthan unit in particular may
attract dissent as major leaders and groups have been
ignored.
The one issue that must be addressed is the dismissal of
Admiral Vishnu Bhagwat and the controversy generated by it.
The matter is indeed unfortunate and as a former Cabinet
Minister and a member of the CCPA, I can only express
surprise and disappointment that issues of this nature
should be discussed. Interference in defence appointments
has always been negligible and the "lobby" syndrome never
existed. Defence officers going to courts of law is equally
unfortunate proving that something is fundamentally wrong
with the system. There are many things which cannot be said
in the interests of national security. I hope the
unfortunate remarks and accusations traded along with media
leaks in the Bhagwat affair are handled discreetly. The
Prime Minister must take the initiative and conduct a
secret inquiry involving leaders of the Opposition into the
appointment of the deputy chief and the sacking of the
naval chief. This would be in the national interest.
The BJP seems poised to lead us into the 21st century, a
century where trade and prosperity will be critical.
Hopefully, the Government will embark on reforms and
elimination of archaic laws. Hopefully the leaders and
those who plan to lead will look at their own ability
instead of looking heavenwards or towards dynastic and
feudal systems. The situation is very fluid and political
acrobatics and moral somersaults can take place anytime and
anything can happen to upset the calculations.