Just as James Bond preferred his martinis "shaken, not
stirred", the Congress seems to prefer the Bharatiya
Janata Party-led coalition government down, not out.
With events moving fast over the last week, the Congress
is in a bind.
After Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's bus ride to
Lahore caught the nation's imagination, the Congress
decided to give the government a scare, if only to keep
it on its toes and remind the Indian people that it
exists.
Its first choice of issue to embarrass the government
was Bihar where, after first declaring that Rabri Devi
had lost her right to rule, the Congress decided to
oppose the imposition of President's rule in the state,
forcing the government to withdraw its notification
under Article 356.
Unfortunately for the Congress, hardly had Rabri Devi
returned to her seat than another massacre took place in
the lawless state. The Congress promptly condemned the
Rashtriya Janata Dal government, but still ended up
looking amoral and opportunistic. Moreover, the contrast
with Orissa, where Congress president Sonia Gandhi got J
B Patnaik to step down as chief minister following the
gruesome murder of Australia-born missionary Graham
Stains and his two sons, was stark. Were the lives of
three white persons more important than those of
hundreds of dalits and bhumihars, was the question.
In the dismissal of navy chief Vishnu Bhagwat, the
Congress saw another opportunity to embarrass the
government and regain the political initiative. Gandhi
ordered an offensive. And the redoubtable Jayalalitha,
keen to grab headlines on a matter of "national
interest" rather than one concerning the corruption
cases against her, too chose to attack Defence Minister
George Fernandes. The two ladies had found a chance to
get together, and all seemed to be going well,
especially after they smiled at each other at a tea
party.
Unfortunately, however, matters went a little too far
for Gandhi's liking. The BJP had had enough of the
Empress of Poes Garden and refused to heed Jayalalitha's
demand to move Fernandes out from the defence ministry.
Taken aback, Jayalalitha asked her ministers to resign.
She had no other go. Otherwise it would have become
clear to all that she was just a bully.
But by delaying the withdrawal of support to the
government, the shrewd lady has left the door slightly
ajar for a rapprochement. Whether that happens remains
to be seen.
The problem for the Congress is that it is not prepared
to form the government right now. The key question: if
the BJP-led government falls and the President invites
the Congress (as the second largest party in the Lok
Sabha), who will be the next prime minister?
The Left parties, which had earlier opposed Sonia
Gandhi, have now apparently agreed to back her. But it
is not so easy. Because for how long the next prime
minister will survive in office is anybody's guess.
A Congress-led government will be even more infirm than
the present one, depending on the support of a score of
unstable allies, including some parties boasting just
one MP each. Most political analysts now predict a
mid-term election before the end of the year. There is
also the very real fear that no one leading such motley
groups, each with their own agendas, will ever be able
to make any positive impact on the electorate. Thus,
whoever is in power at the time of the poll is certain
to suffer an anti-establishment vote.
Gandhi would prefer to become prime minister after the
election, if the Congress gets a majority. If she
becomes prime minister now and the party does badly, it
will be held against her. By not taking charge, she can
always point a finger at someone else.
Having seen how the BJP's allies have bullied Vajpayee,
Gandhi is only too aware of the pitfalls. Leading such a
ragtag coalition will only destroy her cultivated image
of a sophisticated and unflappable lady and show up her
flaws.
So if not her, who? Leader of the Opposition Sharad
Pawar should be the natural choice, but Gandhi doesn't
much like the Maratha strongman. Anyway, according to
sources in the party, Pawar has already made it clear
that he is not interested in leading a ragged bunch. His
reasons: the same as listed above.
According to the sources, Manmohan Singh has thrown his
turban into the ring and declared, Barkis-like, that he
is willing. But the Left Front, whose support will make
or mar a Congress-led government, cares little for the
ex-Communist. To the Left, Singh is synonymous with
economic liberalisation and hence anathema. And choosing
a person from among the other lesser mortals in the
Congress might lead to a "Why him and not me?" syndrome.
That leaves the option of a non-Congress prime minister.
H D Deve Gowda too has declared his willingness to
return to the hot seat, but in recent times he has also
shown his nasty side by bullying Karnataka Chief
Minister J H Patel. Also, the Janata Dal is a shadow of
its former self with only half a dozen MPs.
Someone like Mulayam Singh Yadav could be dangerous for
the Congress, because his Samajwadi Party is in direct
competition with Gandhi's outfit for the minority votes
in Uttar Pradesh. And without Uttar Pradesh, the
Congress cannot hope to recapture Delhi.
Actually, Yadav also realises that his party and the
Congress are in competition and so is not too keen to
strengthen the latter. Hence, even if he ends up
supporting the Congress, he will want the BJP government
in Uttar Pradesh dismissed. If Gandhi refuses, Yadav may
end up doing a Jayalalitha on the Congress.
Thus it is that the Congress finds itself in a quandary,
and all because Jayalalitha and the BJP have failed to
arrive at a last-minute compromise like in the good old
days.
The Congress is beginning to find out that having
Jayalalitha on its side is actually an advantage to the
opposition, which is why the BJP is now avoiding a
rapprochement. The party is in a win-win situation: if
its government survives, that's great (and Jayalalitha's
in trouble); if not, it can sit on the sidelines and
watch the Congress make a fool of itself. And then pick
up the votes in the next election.
Uneasy indeed lies the head that wears the crown.