K Balakrishnan and GVL Narasimha Rao
Times of India
August 14, 1999
Title: In Kargil's afterglow: BJP & allies are on a roll Author: K Balakrishnan and GVL Narasimha Rao Publication: Times of India Date: August 14, 1999 NEW DELHI: Filing of nominations is on, and serious campaigning is yet to begin, but it is becoming clear that the BJP-led alliance is well on the way to a big win in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections. According to the Timespoll survey by DRS conducted between August 5 and 9 among a representative sample of 8,000 voters in 51 constituencies across the country, the BJP-led alliance is expected to get as much as 44 per cent of the national vote (a gain of 7 per cent over 1998), giving it an estimated 332 seats in the 13th Lok Sabha. This is the first time since 1984 an incumbent Central Government is set to return to power with well over 40 per cent of the national vote. However, the big story that comes through all the number crunching is the polarisation that is taking place between the two major political formations - the BJP-led alliance and the Congress and its allies - at the cost of the the third parties. Thus there is actually a 3 per cent vote gain for the Congress and its allies, yet they are estimated to bag only 138 seats (a loss of 27 seats from 1998), since the BJP front is gaining more votes and more seats at the expense of the third forces. The poll shows that the hopes nursed by the Samajwadi Party, Sharad Pawar's NCP, the BSP etc. of playing a key balancing role in a hung Parliament are unlikely to bear fruit. The polarisation that is taking place is mainly a result of the electorate's yearning for stability. Thus the two big parties are gaining votes, as also the allies associated with them, but the ``spoilers'' which are seen to be destabilising forces are likely to be marginalised. But it is the Kargil crisis and the perceived success of the government in handling it (74 per cent of the voters express themselves satisfied) that has proved decisive in helping the BJP alliance to establish an unassailable lead. With the campaigning still ahead of us and the elections more than two weeks away, these figures are no doubt to be taken as provisional. However, the poll shows that the undecided voters (some 13 per cent) are leaning towards the main parties in the same proportion. The Timespoll final round forecast will be published close to the election dates.
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