K Balakrishnan and GVL Narasimha Rao
Times of India
September 7, 1999
Title: BJP-allies projected to get majority in second phase Author: K Balakrishnan and GVL Narasimha Rao Publication: Times of India Date: September 7, 1999 NEW DELHI: The BJP-led alliance is poised to make substantial gains in Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, while making moderate gains in Rajasthan and retaining its strong position in Karnataka, in the second phase of elections scheduled for Saturday, September 11. The Timespoll pre-election survey by DRS shows that the Congress's losses in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan may be offset by gains in Kerala and due to the benefit of its alliance with the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu. While both major formations (the BJP and the Congress-led alliances) are set to gain votes at the expense of third parties, the BJP's gains both in terms of votes and seats will be greater in the second phase, mainly due the new alliances it has forged with the TDP, DMK and a section of the JD. The first two phases of polling covering almost half of all parliamentary constituencies have mostly been in states in which the Congress has had a strong presence. The pre-poll survey trends show that while the Congress and allies are expected to win 109 seats in these two phases (a net gain of only three seats over 1998), the BJP and allies are likely to bag 144 seats, that is, a majority of the 259 seats in contention. The later phases of polling covering the important states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal are likely to prove even tougher for the Congress. The BJP-Shiv Sena combine is likely to win 25 of the 48 seats in Maharashtra. Sharad Pawar's breakaway Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) may not have caused much damage to the Congress in the first phase of polling in Vidarbha, but in the second phase in the western parts of the state it is likely to cause a vertical split in the traditional Congress vote, greatly benefiting the BJP alliance. In Karnataka, Sonia Gandhi's decision to contest from Bellary appears to have made little difference to the Congress' fortunes, and the BJP and its allies are headed for a big win in the state. Tamil Nadu is unlikely to see any sweep for either of the two major political formations. However, the DMK-BJP combine has an edge due to its strong showing in the northern parts of the state. The BJP appears to have lost some ground in Madhya Pradesh though it is set to make big gains in Andhra Pradesh along with its ally, the TDP. The Timespoll survey of the constituencies of the second phase of elections was conducted by Development & Research Services (DRS) between August 29 and September 2 among a representative sample of 5,850 voters spread across 40 constituencies. Tomorrow in these columns we shall publish the Timespoll forecast for the assembly elections in Maharashtra and Karnataka which are due to be completed on September 11. As reiterated earlier, these surveys are being conducted entirely in keeping with the intent, letter and spirit of the Representation of the People Act which specifies a 48-hour embargo on the dissemination of election matter before each polling date.
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